UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Prediction

Adnan Radwan | 2024-02-08

Alexander Volkanovski embodies what it means to be a mixed martial artist. He has shown tremendous striking ability by beating fighters like Max Holloway on the feet, and has also shown that he can grapple and defend submissions from the likes of Islam Makhachev. Volkanovski's ability to mix it all together presents a great threat towards his contenders.

The conundrum presented by Alexander Volkanovski's fighting style is difficult to solve, but one potential key to unlocking this challenge may have presented itself to his next opponent Ilia Topuria.

The Challenger

Ilia Topuria (14-0-0) is one of the most entertaining fighters to watch at 145lbs. His heavy handed combos to the body and head have caused highlight reel KOs on more than one occasion. However, Ilia isn't just a boxer, he has shown high-level grappling both offensively and defensively.

A contender of Ilia's caliber presents a serious threat to any champion, however, we have to remember two things, firstly Volkanovski isn't any old champion, and secondly, styles make fights. I believe Topuria is in a rough spot with Volkanovski.

As I see it, both fighters are true mixed martial artists who focus primarily on striking. The champ likely has the edge in striking and wrestling while the contender might have an advantage in submission ability, however its likely not a big enough advantage to overcome the champ's submission defense. Even though both fighters like to mix the martial arts, I believe this fight will be a striking affair. Each fighter has a distinct striking style that they rely on and the matchup of these styles is Ilia's next major issue. Topuria's boxing style is great for avoiding the fight-ending shots of brutal power punchers like Josh Emmett, but it's relatively less effective against a volume striker like Volkanovski. In fact, I predict the heavy lead leg that a boxing stance necessitates is going to be the champ's primary target. Striking Ilia's lead leg will take away the boxer's base and limit the power he can generate with punches. Not only is that leg a free scoring mechanism for Volkanovski, but striking it will also dull Ilia's best weapon. Ilia's susceptibility to kicks doesn't end with his legs as he's been caught clean with more than one head kick. While Volkanovski doesn't spam high kicks, depending on Ilia's reaction, or lack thereof, to the low ones you can expect Volk to start mixing it up. Given this bleak analysis, is all hope lost for Ilia?

Headshot Dead

Hmmm, what happened the last time a dominant champion got head kicked and finished? He lost his next two fights. Yes, after Leon Edwards finished Kamaru Usman with a devastating head kick, the former champion went on to lose his next two fights. While both of these losses were due to decision it was clear that an already aged Usman had lost the aura he once possessed. As you likely already know, Alexander Volkanovski lost his last fight due to a head kick he received from Islam Makhachev. While many contextual factors differ from these two situations, there are two very important factors which are not in Volkanovski's favour.

Firstly, after his loss, Usman fought at the same weight and higher. Why is this relevant? Because the amount a fighter cuts can have serious repercussions on their chin. Thus, in Volk's case, fighting back at featherweight will only worsen his ability to take a punch. Secondly, and more importantly, Volk is fighting 4 months after his loss, whereas Usman and Edwards rematched 5 months after headshot dead. This quick turnaround for Volkanovski makes the chance of an incomplete recovery greater.

Thus, clear as day, Ilia Topuria's path to victory stems from Islam's finishing of the featherweight champ. Ilia doesn't have many advantages in this fight, however, he does have power, and Volkanovski can be caught. In normal circumstances, I think Volkanovski at 100% avoids any serious damage that Ilia could cause, and even if he did get caught once or twice, he would be able to recover. However, Volkanovski is unlikely to be at 100% and may never be in the same condition he once was.

Conclusion and Final Prediction

As I have outlined, fate has shone upon Ilia and has granted him the opportunity to seize the featherweight belt. That being said, even fate couldn't go 5 rounds with Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski. In his fights, the champ has shown that technically he is one of the most skilled fighters of all time, however, this isn't his greatest asset. No. His greatest asset is that he has that dog in him. Who else would throw insignificant strikes at a Dagestani champion on their back, or have the heart and awareness to escape a mounted guillotine from Brian Ortega? So, although the stars have aligned for Ilia to take the belt, I still think Volkanovski, with his remaining advantages and heart, will technically outstrike Ilia for 5 rounds.